By Robert Mutasi 
A fresh shortage of subsidised fertiliser in Kenya’s North Rift has once again exposed the vulnerability of small-scale farmers in Uasin Gishu County, raising serious questions over the effectiveness of the government’s fertiliser subsidy programme and the future of maize production in the region.
For weeks, farmers have been flocking to National Cereals and Produce Board depots hoping to buy subsidised Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) fertiliser at the government price of Sh1,950 per 90-kilogram bag.
But many are returning home empty-handed.The shortage has forced them into the hands of private dealers, where the same fertiliser now costs Sh2,800 — an extra Sh850 per bag.
For farmers in Uasin Gishu, often referred to as Kenya’s grain basket, the shortage is not just an inconvenience. It is a direct blow to their production cycle.
A maize farmer cultivating five acres requires at least 10 bags of CAN for top-dressing. Under the subsidy programme, that would cost Sh19,500.
At current commercial prices, the same quantity costs Sh28,000.That is an extra Sh8,500 — enough to pay for farm labour, transport, or even school fees.For larger farmers cultivating 20 or 30 acres, the financial burden is even heavier.
The hidden burden on Uasin Gishu farmers
The fertiliser shortage comes at the most critical stage of maize production — top-dressing.
Agricultural experts warn that delayed or skipped fertiliser application weakens plant growth and lowers grain formation.
For farmers in areas such as Eldoret, Turbo and Moiben, where maize farming is the backbone of household income, the consequences could be severe.
Farmers now face three painful choices:Buy expensive fertiliser
This increases production costs and reduces expected profits.
Apply less fertiliserThis lowers crop yields.
Skip top-dressing altogether
This risks major harvest losses.
Whichever option they choose, farmers lose.
“We fail to understand why fertiliser shortages happen every season when farmers need it most,” said Kipkorir Menjo during a farmers’ meeting in Eldoret.
His concerns reflect a growing frustration among smallholders who say the subsidy programme is becoming unreliable.
Following the supply chain
The shortage raises deeper questions.Why does fertiliser repeatedly disappear during peak demand?
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, global supply disruptions linked to instability in the Strait of Hormuz have slowed imports.
Agriculture Principal Secretary Paul Kiprono Rono says ships carrying fertiliser have been forced to use longer routes through South Africa, delaying deliveries.But farmers argue this explanation does not fully answer why private dealers seem to have enough stock while public depots remain understocked.
This recurring pattern has revived fears of supply leakages and cartel interference within the subsidy chain.
Some farmers suspect subsidised stock may be diverted into private markets where profits are higher.
Though no official evidence has confirmed this, the pattern continues to fuel mistrust.
Small farmers carrying the biggest burden
A report by the World Bank warned that Kenya’s fertiliser subsidy system often benefits medium and large-scale farmers more than smallholders.
That concern is visible in Uasin Gishu.Small-scale farmers often lack transport to move quickly when fertiliser stock arrives.
Others cannot afford to spend days queueing at depots.By the time they arrive, stock is gone.Private dealers become the only option.
For many, that means borrowing money or selling livestock to buy fertiliser.That increases debt pressure even before harvest.
What happens next?
If the shortage persists, Uasin Gishu farmers could face reduced yields this season.Lower production means lower incomes.
For many households, maize sales fund school fees, medical bills and daily household needs.Poor harvests could weaken household finances and push more families into economic distress.It also threatens the county’s agricultural dominance.
Uasin Gishu’s economy depends heavily on maize farming. Reduced productivity affects transporters, millers, casual labourers and grain traders.The ripple effect could stretch far beyond the farms.
For now, farmers continue waiting at NCPB depots, hoping the promised fertiliser will arrive before it is too late.
But as planting windows narrow and costs rise, many in Uasin Gishu are asking the same question:If subsidised fertiliser cannot reach farmers when they need it most, who is the programme really serving?
George Mwangi